Pep's Delusion: City's "Best" Is a Fading Memory
Pep Guardiola said it this week, straight face and all: Manchester City is "close" to getting back to their best. He said it after getting thoroughly outplayed by Real Madrid in the Champions League, a 3-3 draw at home that felt more like a lucky escape than a dominant performance. Look, I’ve been watching this team for years. I’ve seen them lift five Premier League titles in six seasons. This ain't "close" to that. Not by a long shot.
The truth is, this isn't the relentless City we saw tear through the league last year, the one that won the treble. That team felt invincible, especially in the back half of the season. Remember the run from February to May 2023? They dropped points in only three league games during that stretch. They won 12 in a row to secure the title. This year? They've already dropped points in eight league matches, including draws against Chelsea and Liverpool, and that frustrating 1-1 at home to Arsenal. Real talk: the "best" City teams didn't just draw those games; they won them, often comfortably.
**The Ghosts of Midfield Past**
A lot of it comes down to control. That's always been Guardiola's calling card, right? Dominate possession, suffocate the opponent. Against Madrid, City had 60% possession, but it felt hollow. Rodri, usually the fulcrum, looked stretched. He completed 90 passes, but how many truly dictated the tempo or carved open the defense? Compare that to his performance in the 2023 FA Cup final against Manchester United, where he bossed the midfield, winning tackles and distributing with precision. This season, he’s still putting up decent numbers, but the sparkle isn't quite there, particularly in the bigger games.
Thing is, the absence of Ilkay Gündoğan looms larger than anyone wants to admit. He wasn't just a goal scorer; he was a master of connecting play, a ghost in the box, and a calming presence under pressure. His departure for Barcelona left a void. Mateo Kovačić and Matheus Nunes are good players, but neither offers that unique blend of creativity and clutch performance that Gündoğan brought. Bernardo Silva tries to do it all, but he can't be everywhere. The midfield just doesn't hum with the same effortless rhythm. It's more disjointed, less telepathic.
And then there's Erling Haaland. He scored 36 league goals last season, a new Premier League record. This year, he's still top of the scoring charts with 20, but something feels off. He's not getting the same quality of service, nor is he making the same impact in general play. Against Madrid, he had one shot on target in 90 minutes. One. That's not the Haaland who terrorized defenses across Europe last spring. He looks isolated too often, a magnificent hammer without enough nails.
Pep can talk about being "close" all he wants. But the eye test tells a different story. The defensive solidity isn't quite there – they've conceded 32 league goals this season, already more than the 33 they gave up in the entire 2021-22 campaign. The attacking fluidity has moments, but lacks sustained brilliance. They're still a top-tier team, don't get me wrong. They’re still in the title race, sitting third, just a point behind Arsenal and Liverpool. But the swagger, the inevitability, that's gone. To truly get back to their "best," they need more than just hope. They need a tactical rethink, or perhaps a new spark in the transfer market.
My prediction? City will fall short in the Champions League again this year, and they’ll finish second in the Premier League, unable to overcome the newfound consistency of Arsenal.