Carabao Cup: Why Arsenal's Trophy Drought Continues, Even Against a Shaky City

The Carabao Cup final isn't just another game for Arsenal; it's a referendum. A chance to prove they're actually building something under Mikel Arteta, not just treading water. They face Manchester City this Sunday at Wembley, and let's be real, it's a tough ask. City, for all their supposed wobbles, still sit second in the Premier League, and they've dispatched Chelsea and Newcastle already in this competition.

Arsenal’s road to Wembley included a scare against Brentford, a penalty shootout win over West Ham, and a comfortable semi-final against a Championship side, Middlesbrough. Not exactly a murderer's row. Their last major trophy was the 2020 FA Cup, also under Arteta, but the club hasn't lifted the League Cup since 1993. That's a long time to wait, especially for a club that prides itself on its history.

Thing is, City's been a bit off lately, dropping points in two of their last four league games – a draw with Chelsea and a loss to Manchester United. Erling Haaland, while still the league’s top scorer with 27 goals, hasn't looked quite as unplayable as he did earlier in the season. But Pep Guardiola’s side has a habit of showing up for these big occasions. They've won four of the last six Carabao Cups, and their experience in finals is simply unmatched by this current Arsenal squad. Expect City to edge this one, probably a tight 2-1 affair. Arsenal just isn't quite ready for that level of sustained pressure in a final.

**Madrid Derby: Atletico's Chance to Close the Gap on Real**

Over in Spain, the Madrid derby on Saturday is always appointment viewing. Real Madrid hosts Atletico Madrid at the Santiago Bernabéu, and this time, it feels like it has extra juice. Real is cruising at the top of La Liga, eight points clear of second-place Girona, with Carlo Ancelotti's side having only lost once in the league all season, a 3-1 defeat to Atletico back in September.

Atletico, meanwhile, finds themselves in fourth, 10 points adrift of their city rivals. Diego Simeone’s team, historically known for its defensive steel, has actually been pretty free-scoring this term, bagging 45 goals in 23 league matches. Antoine Griezmann has been a revelation, with 11 goals and 3 assists in La Liga. They're a different beast at home, though. They've won all 11 of their league games at the Cívitas Metropolitano, but their away form has been patchy, with only four wins from 12 road trips.

Real Madrid, even without the injured Jude Bellingham, who's been a driving force with 16 goals, usually finds a way. Vinicius Jr. has been electric on the left, and Federico Valverde continues to boss the midfield. But Atletico beat them earlier this season, and they know how to frustrate Real. This won’t be a walk in the park for Ancelotti. I've got a feeling this one ends in a draw, maybe 1-1. Atletico's away form is a concern, but Simeone will have them fired up. Plus, Real looked a bit tired against Getafe in their mid-week game.

Bold prediction for the weekend: Arsenal loses the Carabao Cup final, and it sparks a minor crisis of confidence that sees them drop points in their next two Premier League games against West Ham and Burnley.